Time Series Data

About Dataset:

The dataset spans 18 years (2005-2022) of individual pharmacy transactions, recording sale date, time, 20 drugs categorized by the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical(ATC) Classification System. Note: Our analysis only utilized three specific drug types.

N02BA - Other analgesics and antipyretics, Salicylic acid and derivatives.
M01AB - Anti-inflammatory and antirheumatic products, non-steroids, Acetic acid derivatives and related substances
M01AE - Anti-inflammatory and antirheumatic products, non-steroids, Propionic acid derivatives.

Historic Monthly Data

Date	M01AB	M01AE	N02BA
2005-07-01	3.53	17.7	20.9
2005-08-01	3.18	33.0	14.0
2005-09-01	3.25	28.1	13.5
2005-10-01	3.61	22.6	23.6
2005-11-01	3.57	3.9	37.4
2005-12-01	4.31	7.0	30.8
2006-01-01	5.09	12.7	12.0
2006-02-01	2.81	34.6	38.1
2006-03-01	2.99	13.8	4.8
2006-04-01	3.2	19.0	26.1
2006-05-01	3.13	32.7	32.0
2006-06-01	3.27	38.2	15.6
2006-07-01	3.74	18.4	5.4
2006-08-01	3.56	25.2	20.4
2006-09-01	3.78	6.0	10.7
2006-10-01	3.92	36.6	20.4
2006-11-01	4.39	3.6	23.5
2006-12-01	5.81	10.2	9.0
2007-01-01	6.19	35.9	25.1
2007-02-01	3.45	27.7	37.1
2007-03-01	3.77	33.4	29.6
2007-04-01	3.73	16.7	14.8
2007-05-01	3.91	35.5	14.7
2007-06-01	4.05	30.5	30.9
2007-07-01	4.32	15.7	6.0
2007-08-01	4.56	9.4	3.7
2007-09-01	4.61	31.0	15.4
2007-10-01	4.67	10.5	35.7
2007-11-01	5.09	10.9	3.5
2007-12-01	7.18	7.5	39.0
2008-01-01	6.73	18.7	26.3
2008-02-01	3.84	40.0	11.0
2008-03-01	4.39	39.2	34.3
2008-04-01	4.08	16.0	11.0
2008-05-01	4.54	14.4	31.1
2008-06-01	4.65	34.1	15.2
2008-07-01	4.75	21.1	33.8
2008-08-01	5.35	30.8	18.5
2008-09-01	5.2	23.8	13.1
2008-10-01	5.3	17.8	20.2
2008-11-01	5.77	6.7	14.3
2008-12-01	6.2	33.5	22.2
2009-01-01	6.75	15.6	34.5
2009-02-01	4.22	3.9	10.8
2009-03-01	4.95	27.7	23.6
2009-04-01	4.82	37.6	6.9
2009-05-01	5.19	25.1	32.4
2009-06-01	5.17	29.8	14.0
2009-07-01	5.26	12.9	6.6
2009-08-01	5.86	3.5	16.0
2009-09-01	5.49	24.5	32.6
2009-10-01	6.12	35.6	35.9
2009-11-01	6.09	13.0	26.0
2009-12-01	7.42	4.1	20.8
2010-01-01	8.33	11.4	6.8
2010-02-01	5.07	33.1	30.3
2010-03-01	5.26	25.7	39.6
2010-04-01	5.6	10.1	30.0
2010-05-01	6.11	26.9	26.2
2010-06-01	5.69	17.6	23.5
2010-07-01	6.49	32.8	29.7
2010-08-01	6.3	8.7	21.7
2010-09-01	6.47	13.8	26.4
2010-10-01	6.83	11.6	9.1
2010-11-01	6.65	39.3	23.8
2010-12-01	8.61	4.5	16.8
2011-01-01	8.52	36.2	34.7
2011-02-01	5.28	8.5	35.3
2011-03-01	5.71	23.0	14.9
2011-04-01	6.21	32.9	38.3
2011-05-01	6.41	19.8	35.3
2011-06-01	6.67	19.6	16.6
2011-07-01	7.05	19.7	17.6
2011-08-01	6.7	6.7	20.9
2011-09-01	7.25	17.3	4.5
2011-10-01	7.82	12.1	12.7
2011-11-01	7.4	12.5	14.7
2011-12-01	10.1	22.4	30.1
2012-01-01	8.8	22.6	15.2
2012-02-01	5.92	36.9	23.6
2012-03-01	6.53	16.5	25.0
2012-04-01	6.68	34.1	10.0
2012-05-01	7.06	4.8	16.7
2012-06-01	7.38	21.3	28.8
2012-07-01	7.81	4.6	7.5
2012-08-01	7.43	26.1	4.0
2012-09-01	8.28	29.8	27.3
2012-10-01	8.26	12.1	29.4
2012-11-01	8.6	26.1	22.7
2012-12-01	10.56	14.6	28.3
2013-01-01	10.39	4.1	14.0
2013-02-01	6.42	13.5	40.0
2013-03-01	8.06	25.5	4.8
2013-04-01	7.3	24.1	6.7
2013-05-01	7.94	23.5	16.6
2013-06-01	8.17	16.6	29.3
2013-07-01	8.72	38.8	21.7
2013-08-01	9.07	30.4	15.2
2013-09-01	9.18	9.9	13.2
2013-10-01	9.25	27.6	26.5
2013-11-01	9.93	27.8	29.0
2013-12-01	11.53	10.9	15.9
2014-01-01	12.51	34.2	23.0
2014-02-01	7.46	5.2	27.2
2014-03-01	8.59	32.0	23.2
2014-04-01	8.47	25.1	32.6
2014-05-01	9.39	23.1	38.5
2014-06-01	9.56	31.1	28.0
2014-07-01	10.83	35.2	18.1
2014-08-01	10.64	26.4	23.8
2014-09-01	9.91	30.1	22.3
2014-10-01	11.71	17.4	2.4
2014-11-01	11.34	35.3	26.4
2014-12-01	12.08	8.5	25.8
2015-01-01	14.5	32.3	16.5
2015-02-01	8.05	5.4	39.5
2015-03-01	10.31	18.2	21.3
2015-04-01	9.75	3.8	11.1
2015-05-01	10.85	11.3	19.8
2015-06-01	9.96	28.1	20.8
2015-07-01	11.44	32.0	38.8
2015-08-01	11.66	14.2	7.2
2015-09-01	10.65	23.1	32.8
2015-10-01	12.65	35.6	25.9
2015-11-01	13.67	31.1	19.6
2015-12-01	12.97	17.9	37.2
2016-01-01	16.3	37.2	10.6
2016-02-01	9.05	17.3	18.0
2016-03-01	10.0	18.8	32.8
2016-04-01	10.79	11.3	27.5
2016-05-01	12.11	34.6	37.0
2016-06-01	10.95	38.5	28.7
2016-07-01	12.84	39.2	18.6
2016-08-01	12.2	10.7	28.8
2016-09-01	12.85	30.5	5.6
2016-10-01	13.54	32.8	36.5
2016-11-01	13.29	36.6	7.2
2016-12-01	15.13	32.0	27.6
2017-01-01	16.83	35.4	30.7
2017-02-01	9.8	39.6	9.1
2017-03-01	10.82	6.6	30.7
2017-04-01	10.65	32.6	19.2
2017-05-01	12.51	28.7	30.7
2017-06-01	12.16	30.8	4.9
2017-07-01	13.0	12.8	10.0
2017-08-01	12.52	38.7	23.9
2017-09-01	13.27	35.5	9.9
2017-10-01	14.73	31.2	10.2
2017-11-01	13.67	30.2	39.8
2017-12-01	16.5	27.2	37.9
2018-01-01	18.0	16.5	15.6
2018-02-01	11.94	3.8	5.7
2018-03-01	13.0	5.5	39.3
2018-04-01	12.88	36.8	27.1
2018-05-01	13.94	33.6	32.7
2018-06-01	13.99	17.2	11.7
2018-07-01	15.34	24.6	18.8
2018-08-01	15.37	39.4	16.2
2018-09-01	16.14	13.7	26.6
2018-10-01	16.69	7.6	29.4
2018-11-01	17.64	30.6	12.2
2018-12-01	18.87	27.5	38.2
2019-01-01	20.78	4.2	20.8
2019-02-01	12.15	27.8	30.7
2019-03-01	13.4	19.7	27.6
2019-04-01	14.46	33.3	35.8
2019-05-01	14.8	38.2	5.7
2019-06-01	15.71	33.8	5.1
2019-07-01	15.83	19.0	33.3
2019-08-01	17.55	35.3	16.6
2019-09-01	18.1	30.1	32.3
2019-10-01	17.5	27.4	28.6
2019-11-01	19.35	12.4	6.8
2019-12-01	20.03	7.9	33.2
2020-01-01	23.49	33.2	14.1
2020-02-01	12.54	20.1	18.6
2020-03-01	15.47	6.4	9.7
2020-04-01	14.23	29.8	17.5
2020-05-01	17.78	24.2	8.2
2020-06-01	16.29	25.7	30.6
2020-07-01	16.98	18.4	13.4
2020-08-01	18.61	29.7	8.6
2020-09-01	16.62	30.2	18.0
2020-10-01	21.43	21.3	29.5
2020-11-01	23.58	21.4	34.3
2020-12-01	23.33	23.8	18.4
2021-01-01	28.04	30.5	33.1
2021-02-01	16.76	35.9	25.9
2021-03-01	19.79	7.4	39.6
2021-04-01	16.43	12.8	30.2
2021-05-01	21.0	17.6	27.0
2021-06-01	20.68	25.7	8.3
2021-07-01	21.83	18.6	24.1
2021-08-01	23.93	32.7	3.0
2021-09-01	22.93	10.8	23.6
2021-10-01	23.26	37.1	38.8
2021-11-01	25.25	16.4	15.4
2021-12-01	25.81	35.8	24.1
2022-01-01	29.67	24.7	37.2
2022-02-01	21.65	18.2	11.9
2022-03-01	18.26	20.0	22.5
2022-04-01	23.11	36.1	18.2
2022-05-01	22.91	21.1	38.9
2022-06-01	19.43	18.5	32.5

Model Evaluation for M01AB:

ARIMA

Mean Absolute Error: 5.65

Mean Squared Error: 44.23

Root Mean Squared Error: 6.65

R - Squared Error: -2.74

Forecast CSV

"Date","Forecast_ARIMA_M01AB"
"2022-06-30",21.24
"2022-07-31",21.18
"2022-08-31",21.13
"2022-09-30",21.07
"2022-10-31",21.02
"2022-11-30",20.96
"2022-12-31",20.91
"2023-01-31",20.86
"2023-02-28",20.8
"2023-03-31",20.75
"2023-04-30",20.7
"2023-05-31",20.65
"2023-06-30",20.59
"2023-07-31",20.54
"2023-08-31",20.49
"2023-09-30",20.44
"2023-10-31",20.39
"2023-11-30",20.34
"2023-12-31",20.29
"2024-01-31",20.24
"2024-02-29",20.19
"2024-03-31",20.14
"2024-04-30",20.09
"2024-05-31",20.04
"2024-06-30",20.0
"2024-07-31",19.95
"2024-08-31",19.9
"2024-09-30",19.85
"2024-10-31",19.81
"2024-11-30",19.76
"2024-12-31",19.71

Download Forecast Excel